[Maternal morbidity and mortality in Brazil and the urgency of a national surveillance system for maternal near miss]. / Morbimortalidade materna no Brasil e a urgência de um sistema nacional de vigilância do near miss materno.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the analysis of severe maternal morbidity/maternal near miss cases as complementary to the analysis of maternal deaths since the incidence is higher and the predictive factors of the two outcomes are similar. Considering that the reasons for maternal mortality in Brazil have remained constant despite the commitment made during the General Assembly of the United Nations in 2015, this article aims to propose a nationwide maternal near miss surveillance system. We propose the inclusion of maternal near miss events in the National List of Compulsory Notification of Diseases, Injuries, and Public Health Events, via the compatibility of the diagnostic criteria of maternal near miss, informed by the WHO, with the codes of the International Classification of Diseases for the identification of cases. Considering that health surveillance is based on several sources of information, notification could be made by health service professionals as soon as a confirmed or suspected case is identified. With the study of the factors associated with the outcomes, we expect a qualified evaluation of the services focused on obstetric care and consequent implementation of more efficient policies to prevent not only maternal death but also events that can both cause irreversible sequelae to women's health and increase the risk of fetal and neonatal death.

A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) recomenda a análise dos casos de morbidade materna severa/near miss materno como complemento às análises das mortes de mães, dado que a incidência é mais elevada e os fatores preditivos dos dois desfechos são semelhantes. Tendo em vista que as razões de mortalidade materna, no Brasil, têm se mantido constantes apesar do compromisso firmado durante a Assembleia Geral da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), em 2015, o objetivo deste artigo é propor um sistema nacional de vigilância de near miss materno. Propõe-se a inclusão dos eventos near miss materno na Lista Nacional de Notificação Compulsória de Doenças, Agravos e Eventos de Saúde Pública, por meio da compatibilização dos critérios diagnósticos de near miss materno, informados pela OMS, com os códigos da Classificação Internacional de Doenças (CID) para identificação dos casos. Tendo em vista que a vigilância em saúde se faz baseada em diversas fontes de informações, a notificação poderia ser feita pelos profissionais dos serviços de saúde tão logo fosse identificado um caso confirmado ou suspeito. A partir do estudo dos fatores associados aos desfechos, espera-se a avaliação mais qualificada dos serviços voltados à assistência obstétrica e consequente implementação de políticas mais eficientes de prevenção não apenas do óbito materno, mas de eventos que podem tanto causar sequelas irreversíveis à saúde da mulher quanto aumento do risco de óbito fetal e neonatal.

La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) recomienda el análisis de los casos de morbilidad materna grave/near miss materno como complemento a los análisis de las muertes maternas, dado que la incidencia es más elevada y los factores predictivos de los dos resultados son similares. Teniendo en vista que las razones de mortalidad materna, en Brasil, se han mantenido constantes a pesar del compromiso firmado durante la Asamblea General de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas, en el año 2015, el objetivo de este artículo es proponer un sistema de vigilancia de near miss materno de alcance nacional. Se propone la inclusión de los eventos de near miss materno en la Lista Nacional de Notificación Obligatoria de Enfermedades, Agravios y Eventos de Salud Pública, por medio de la compatibilización de los criterios diagnósticos de near miss materno; informados por la OMS, con los códigos de la Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades para identificación de los casos. Teniendo en vista que la vigilancia en salud se basa en diversas fuentes de Informaciones, la notificación podría ser hecha por los profesionales de los servicios de salud, tan pronto fuese identificado un caso confirmado o sospechoso. Se espera que el estudio de los factores asociados a los resultados conduzca a una evaluación más calificada de los servicios de atención obstétrica y a la consecuente implementación de políticas más eficientes de prevención no solo de la muerte materna; sino de eventos que pueden tanto causar secuelas irreversibles a la salud de la mujer como aumento del riesgo de muerte fetal y neonatal.

Morbimortalidade materna no Brasil e a urgência de um sistema nacional de vigilância do near miss materno / Maternal morbidity and mortality in Brazil and the urgency of a national surveillance system for maternal near miss / La morbimortalidad materna en Brasil y la urgencia de un sistema nacional de vigilancia del near miss materno

A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) recomenda a análise dos casos de morbidade materna severa/near miss materno como complemento às análises das mortes de mães, dado que a incidência é mais elevada e os fatores preditivos dos dois desfechos são semelhantes. Tendo em vista que as razões de mortalidade materna, no Brasil, têm se mantido constantes apesar do compromisso firmado durante a Assembleia Geral da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), em 2015, o objetivo deste artigo é propor um sistema nacional de vigilância de near miss materno. Propõe-se a inclusão dos eventos near miss materno na Lista Nacional de Notificação Compulsória de Doenças, Agravos e Eventos de Saúde Pública, por meio da compatibilização dos critérios diagnósticos de near miss materno, informados pela OMS, com os códigos da Classificação Internacional de Doenças (CID) para identificação dos casos. Tendo em vista que a vigilância em saúde se faz baseada em diversas fontes de informações, a notificação poderia ser feita pelos profissionais dos serviços de saúde tão logo fosse identificado um caso confirmado ou suspeito. A partir do estudo dos fatores associados aos desfechos, espera-se a avaliação mais qualificada dos serviços voltados à assistência obstétrica e consequente implementação de políticas mais eficientes de prevenção não apenas do óbito materno, mas de eventos que podem tanto causar sequelas irreversíveis à saúde da mulher quanto aumento do risco de óbito fetal e neonatal.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the analysis of severe maternal morbidity/maternal near miss cases as complementary to the analysis of maternal deaths since the incidence is higher and the predictive factors of the two outcomes are similar. Considering that the reasons for maternal mortality in Brazil have remained constant despite the commitment made during the General Assembly of the United Nations in 2015, this article aims to propose a nationwide maternal near miss surveillance system. We propose the inclusion of maternal near miss events in the National List of Compulsory Notification of Diseases, Injuries, and Public Health Events, via the compatibility of the diagnostic criteria of maternal near miss, informed by the WHO, with the codes of the International Classification of Diseases for the identification of cases. Considering that health surveillance is based on several sources of information, notification could be made by health service professionals as soon as a confirmed or suspected case is identified. With the study of the factors associated with the outcomes, we expect a qualified evaluation of the services focused on obstetric care and consequent implementation of more efficient policies to prevent not only maternal death but also events that can both cause irreversible sequelae to women's health and increase the risk of fetal and neonatal death.

La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) recomienda el análisis de los casos de morbilidad materna grave/near miss materno como complemento a los análisis de las muertes maternas, dado que la incidencia es más elevada y los factores predictivos de los dos resultados son similares. Teniendo en vista que las razones de mortalidad materna, en Brasil, se han mantenido constantes a pesar del compromiso firmado durante la Asamblea General de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas, en el año 2015, el objetivo de este artículo es proponer un sistema de vigilancia de near miss materno de alcance nacional. Se propone la inclusión de los eventos de near miss materno en la Lista Nacional de Notificación Obligatoria de Enfermedades, Agravios y Eventos de Salud Pública, por medio de la compatibilización de los criterios diagnósticos de near miss materno; informados por la OMS, con los códigos de la Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades para identificación de los casos. Teniendo en vista que la vigilancia en salud se basa en diversas fuentes de Informaciones, la notificación podría ser hecha por los profesionales de los servicios de salud, tan pronto fuese identificado un caso confirmado o sospechoso. Se espera que el estudio de los factores asociados a los resultados conduzca a una evaluación más calificada de los servicios de atención obstétrica y a la consecuente implementación de políticas más eficientes de prevención no solo de la muerte materna; sino de eventos que pueden tanto causar secuelas irreversibles a la salud de la mujer como aumento del riesgo de muerte fetal y neonatal.

Differentials in death count records by databases in Brazil in 2010.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the death counts from three sources of information on mortality available in Brazil in 2010, the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ), Civil Registration Statistic System (RC - Sistema de Estatísticas de Resgistro Civil ), and the 2010 Demographic Census at various geographical levels, and to confirm the association between municipal socioeconomic characteristics and the source which showed the highest death count. METHODS: This is a descriptive and comparative study of raw data on deaths in the SIM, RC and 2010 Census databases, the latter held in Brazilian states and municipalities between August 2009 and July 2010. The percentage of municipalities was confirmed by the database showing the highest death count. The association between the source of the highest death count and socioeconomic indicators - the Índice de Privação Brasileiro (IBP - Brazilian Deprivation Index) and Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IHDM - Municipal Human Development Index) - was performed by bivariate choropleth and Moran Local Index of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster maps. RESULTS: Confirmed that the SIM is the database with the highest number of deaths counted for all Brazilian macroregions, except the North, in which the highest coverage was from the 2010 Census. Based on the indicators proposed, in general, the Census showed a higher coverage of deaths than the SIM and the RC in the most deprived (highest IBP values) and less developed municipalities (lowest IDHM values) in the country. CONCLUSION: The results highlight regional inequalities in how the databases chosen for this study cover death records, and the importance of maintaining the issue of mortality on the basic census questionnaire.

Spatial analysis of cardiovascular mortality and associated factors around the world.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death worldwide in both developed and developing countries. The risk factors for CVD include demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, environmental, and physiological factors. However, the spatial distribution of these risk factors, as well as CVD mortality, are not uniformly distributed across countries. Therefore, the goal of this study is to compare and evaluate some models commonly used in mortality and health studies to investigate whether the CVD mortality rates in the adult population (over 30 years of age) of a country are associated with the characteristics of surrounding countries from 2013 to 2017. METHODS: We present the spatial distribution of the age-standardized crude mortality rate from cardiovascular disease, as well as conduct an exploratory data analysis (EDA) to obtain a basic understanding of the behavior of the variables of interest. Then, we apply the ordinary least squares (OLS) to the country level dataset. As OLS does not take into account the spatial dependence of the data, we apply two spatial modelling techniques, that is, spatial lag and spatial error models. RESULTS: Our empirical findings show that the relationship between CVD and income, as well as other socioeconomic variables, are important. In addition, we highlight the importance of understanding how changes in individual behavior across different countries might affect future trends in CVD mortality, especially related to smoking and dietary behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: We argue that this study provides useful clues for policymakers establishing effective public health planning and measures for the prevention of deaths from cardiovascular disease. The reduction of CVD mortality can positively impact GDP growth because increasing life expectancy enables people to contribute to the economy of the country and its regions for longer.

Differentials in death count records by databases in Brazil in 2010

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare the death counts from three sources of information on mortality available in Brazil in 2010, the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ), Civil Registration Statistic System (RC - Sistema de Estatísticas de Resgistro Civil ), and the 2010 Demographic Census at various geographical levels, and to confirm the association between municipal socioeconomic characteristics and the source which showed the highest death count. METHODS This is a descriptive and comparative study of raw data on deaths in the SIM, RC and 2010 Census databases, the latter held in Brazilian states and municipalities between August 2009 and July 2010. The percentage of municipalities was confirmed by the database showing the highest death count. The association between the source of the highest death count and socioeconomic indicators - the Índice de Privação Brasileiro (IBP - Brazilian Deprivation Index) and Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IHDM - Municipal Human Development Index) - was performed by bivariate choropleth and Moran Local Index of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster maps. RESULTS Confirmed that the SIM is the database with the highest number of deaths counted for all Brazilian macroregions, except the North, in which the highest coverage was from the 2010 Census. Based on the indicators proposed, in general, the Census showed a higher coverage of deaths than the SIM and the RC in the most deprived (highest IBP values) and less developed municipalities (lowest IDHM values) in the country. CONCLUSION The results highlight regional inequalities in how the databases chosen for this study cover death records, and the importance of maintaining the issue of mortality on the basic census questionnaire.

Educação e outros determinantes da participação laboral de adultos mais velhos no Brasil / Education and other determinants of older adults' participation in labor force in Brazil / Educación y otros determinantes de la participación laboral de adultos mayores en Brasil

Resumo A extensão da vida laboral está ligada aos anos acumulados de estudo pelos indivíduos e às características do sistema de previdência social (COILE, 2018; GRUBER; WISE, 1999). No Brasil, ao longo das últimas décadas, as pessoas têm adquirido maior educação formal e entram tardiamente no mercado de trabalho, mas a disponibilidade de programas de aposentadoria faz com que saiam precocemente, mesmo que estejam experimentando ganhos em longevidade (QUEIROZ; FERREIRA, 2021). O presente estudo busca caracterizar as transformações, ao longo do tempo, da participação laboral de indivíduos em idades avançadas, considerando as mudanças na composição educacional. Para tanto, foram utilizados os microdados dos Censos Demográficos (1980, 1991, 2000 e 2010), obtidos no IPUMS, e da PNAD de 2015. A participação na força de trabalho foi estimada a partir de modelo logístico binário que considera seus potenciais determinantes e também representa as desigualdades que marcam o contexto. Os resultados mostram que a propensão de estar em atividade se relaciona positivamente à escolaridade. No entanto, pouco mudou no que tange às condições de trabalho de pessoas mais velhas. A precariedade enfrentada por essa mão de obra subsiste ao longo do tempo e persistem as desvantagens de mulheres e negros no que se refere à atuação no mercado de trabalho.

Abstract The extension of working life is associated with the accumulated years of schooling of individuals and with the characteristics of the pension system (COILE, 2018; GRUBER; WISE, 1999). In Brazil, people are acquiring years of education and beginning to work later. However, the availability of retirement programs make them leave early, despite increasing longevity (QUEIROZ; FERREIRA, 2021). This paper aims to characterize the changes in the labor force participation of elderly people across time, considering changes in the education composition. Census microdata were used (1980, 1991, 2000 and 2010), collected from IPUMS, and PNAD 2015. The labor force participation was estimated using binary logistic regression that considers potential determinants and represents the inequalities marking the context. Results show that the propensity to work is positively associated with schooling. However, little has changed regarding the working conditions of the elderly. The vulnerability faced by this labor force persists across time as do disadvantages for women and black people.

Resumen La extensión de la vida laboral está ligada a los años de estudio acumulados por los individuos y a las características del sistema de pensión. En Brasil, en las últimas décadas, las personas han adquirido más calificación y entran más tarde al mercado laboral, pero la disponibilidad de programas de jubilación hace que la gente se retire antes mientras que es cada vez más longeva. Este estudio tiene como objetivo caracterizar las transformaciones, en el tiempo, de la participación laboral de individuos en edades avanzadas, considerando los cambios en la composición educacional. Para eso se utilizaron los microdatos de los censos demográficos (1980, 1991, 2000 y 2010), obtenidos de IPUMS y de la PNAD de 2015. La participación en la fuerza de trabajo se estimó a partir de un modelo logístico binario que considera sus potenciales determinantes y que representa también las desigualdades que marcan el contexto. Los resultados muestran que la propensión a estar en actividad se relaciona positivamente con la escolaridad alcanzada. Sin embargo, poco hay cambiado no que se refiere a las condiciones de trabajo de las personas más viejas. La precariedad enfrentada por esa fuerza laboral subsiste a lo largo del tiempo, así como también persisten las desventajas de las mujeres y las personas negras en cuanto a su actuación en el mercado de trabajo.

Regional Distribution of Causes of Death for Small Areas in Brazil, 1998-2017.

Background: What is the spatial pattern of mortality by cause and sex in Brazil? Even considering the main causes of death, such as neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, external causes, respiratory diseases, and infectious diseases, there are still important debate regarding the spatial pattern of mortality by causes in Brazil. Evidence shows that there is an overlap in transitional health states, due to the persistence of infectious diseases (e.g., dengue, cholera, malaria, etc.,) in parallel with the increase in chronic degenerative diseases. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of three groups of causes of death in Brazil across small areas from 1998 to 2017, by sex. Methods: We use publicly available data from the System Data Mortality Information (SIM-DATASUS) from 1998 to 2017. We focus on this period due to the better quality of information, in addition to all deaths are registered following the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). We estimate standardized mortality rates by sex and cause aggregated into three main groups. We use a ternary color scheme to maximize all the information in a three-dimensional array of compositional data. Results: We find improvements in mortality from chronic degenerative diseases; faster declines are observed in the Southern regions of the country; but the persistence of high levels of mortality due to infectious diseases remained in the northern parts of the country. We also find impressive differences in external causes of deaths between males and females and an increase in mortality from these causes in the interior part of the country. Conclusions: This study provides useful information for policy makers in establishing effective measures for the prevention of deaths and public health planning for deaths from external and non-communicable causes. We observed how the distribution of causes of death varies across regions and how the patterns of mortality also vary by gender.

Spatial pattern of COVID-19 deaths and infections in small areas of Brazil.

As of mid-August 2020, Brazil was the country with the second-highest number of cases and deaths by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with large regional and social differences. In this study, using data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, we analyze the spatial patterns of infection and mortality from Covid-19 across small areas of Brazil. We apply spatial autoregressive Bayesian models and estimate the risks of infection and mortality, taking into account age, sex composition of the population and other variables that describe the health situation of the spatial units. We also perform a decomposition analysis to study how age composition impacts the differences in mortality and infection rates across regions. Our results indicate that death and infections are spatially distributed, forming clusters and hotspots, especially in the Northern Amazon, Northeast coast and Southeast of the country. The high mortality risk in the Southeast part of the country, where the major cities are located, can be explained by the high proportion of the elderly in the population. In the less developed areas of the North and Northeast, there are high rates of infection among young adults, people of lower socioeconomic status, and people without access to health care, resulting in more deaths.

Transition to adulthood in Latin America: 1960s-2010s / Transição para a vida adulta na América Latina: 1960-2010 / Transición a la adultez en América Latina 1960-2010

Multidimensional discussion about transition to adulthood is an incipient theme in Latin America. This paper seeks to describe and characterize the process of change in the transition of men and women in the region between the 1960s and 2010's. Using census data from IPUMS-International for 15 Latin American countries, we calculate the mean ages at transition to adulthood, at entering the labor market, at first union, and at first birth. We concluded there was a process of postponing transition to adulthood, although much stronger for males than for females, which we attribute to the events linked to the transition of each group. With these results, we hope to encourage further research into transition to adulthood in Latin America.

A transição para a vida adulta é um tema pouco explorado de forma multidimensional na América Latina. Este artigo busca descrever e caracterizar o processo de mudança na transição de homens e mulheres na região, entre 1960 e 2010. Utilizando dados censitários fornecidos pela plataforma IPUMS para 15 países latino-americanos, foram calculadas as idades médias na transição para a vida adulta, no ingresso no mercado de trabalho, na primeira união e no nascimento do primeiro filho. Conclui-se que houve um processo de postergação da transição para a vida adulta, porém, foi muito mais forte para os homens do que para as mulheres, o que pode ser atribuído aos acontecimentos ligados à transição de cada grupo. Com esses resultados, esperamos encorajar mais investigações sobre a transição para a vida adulta na América Latina.

La transición a la adultez es un tema poco explorado de manera multidimensional en América Latina. Este artículo busca describir y caracterizar el proceso de cambio en la transición de hombres y mujeres en la región entre las décadas de 1960 y 2010. Utilizando datos censales proporcionados por la plataforma IPUMS para 15 países de América Latina, calculamos las edades medias en la transición a la edad adulta, entrada al mercado laboral, primera unión y primer nacimiento. Concluimos que hubo un proceso de postergación de la transición a la adultez que fue mucho más fuerte para los hombres que para las mujeres, lo que atribuimos a los hechos relacionados con la transición de cada grupo. Con estos resultados esperamos impulsar nuevas investigaciones sobre la transición a la vida adulta en América Latina.

Female motorcycle mortality in Brazilian municipalities, 2005, 2010 and 2015. / A mortalidade feminina por acidentes de motocicleta nos municípios brasileiros, 2005, 2010 e 2015.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the spatial distribution of female mortality due to motorcycle accidents in Brazilian municipalities between 2005 and 2015, as well as the variation in rates in the same period. METHODS: Female mortality rates for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015 were estimated considering a three-year moving average around the base year, standardized by the direct method. Rates were standardized using the same pattern (Brazilian females in 2010) for each year. Then, the empirical Bayes estimator was used to reduce the effect of the random fluctuation. The percentage variation of the standardized rates was also analyzed for different population sizes (less than ten thousand, less than 50 thousand, more than 100 thousand and more than one million inhabitants). RESULTS: Bayesian rates showed a clear increase in female mortality due to motorcycle accidents, especially in the North, Northeast and Midwest regions. In the municipalities of the South and Southeast regions, mainly in the period between 2010 and 2015, there was an apparent decrease in mortality. The percentage variation showed a reduction in the indicator analyzed in the period between 2010 and 2015 for the largest municipalities in the South and Southeast regions. For almost all regions and population sizes, the period between 2010 and 2015 showed a deceleration in the growth of rates. CONCLUSION: The analysis clearly shows concentrations of municipalities with higher mortality, while also showing that the phenomenon has spread to a greater number of municipalities. The studied period allows the identification of different dynamics in female mortality, in a period of significant variation in mortality due to motorcycle accidents.

Association between Cardiovascular Mortality and Economic Development: A Spatio-Temporal Study for Prefectures in Japan.

In this paper, we use a bivariate choropleth map to investigate the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, by sex, in Japanese prefectures from 1996 to 2015. The overall results show a decline in age-standardized CVD mortality rates in all prefectures, for both men and women, and suggest that GDP per capita has varied over the period. We also observed that the relationship between CVD mortality rates and GDP per capita at the prefecture level does not have an overall pattern of the same or inverse association, but is instead a heterogeneous relationship. We argue that this study provides useful clues to policy makers for establishing effective measures for public health planning and the prevention of deaths from CVD. As demonstrated by this study, mapping of the CVD burden in Japan helps to clarify regional differences in life expectancy and health status across regions and identify prefectures where more targeted policy attention may be needed.

[Spatial analysis of motorcycle-related mortalities in Brazilian municipalities]. / Análise espacial da mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta nos municípios do Brasil.

Analysis of the distribution of motorcycle-related mortality rates in Brazilian municipalities is fundamental to understand and seek to minimize the occurrence of this growing phenomenon. The main objective of this work is to analyze the spatial distribution of motorcycle rider mortality rates in Brazil, based on more robust and reliable estimates. An attempt was also made to identify the presence of spatial clusters in the distribution of such mortality rates in given municipalities. The rates were estimated based on the average number of motorcyclist deaths recorded in the years 2014, 2015 and 2016. These rates were then directly standardized and graduated based on the local empirical Bayesian estimator. A Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) indicated the presence of spatial patterns. The Northeast and Mid-West regions concentrated most of the municipalities with high mortality rates as well and most of the clusters of municipalities with a high-high distribution pattern. Graduated Bayesian estimation was effective to deal with the occurrence of extreme values, thereby improving the reliability of the estimates and enhancing the visualization of the rates on the map.

A análise da distribuição da mortalidade de motociclistas nos municípios brasileiros é fundamental para o entender e tentar minimizar a ocorrência deste crescente fenômeno. O principal objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar a distribuição espacial das taxas de mortalidade de ocupantes de motocicletas nos municípios brasileiros, a partir de estimativas mais robustas e confiáveis. Adicionalmente, pretendeu-se identificar a presença de padrões espaciais na distribuição das mesmas. As taxas brutas foram construídas com base no número de óbitos de motociclistas considerando a média das ocorrências nos anos de 2014, 2015 e 2016. Estas taxas foram padronizadas diretamente e suavizadas utilizando o estimador bayesiano empírico local. A identificação da presença de padrões espaciais foi realizada a partir de um indicador local de autocorrelação espacial (LISA). As taxas de mortalidade mais elevadas foram observadas em municípios da região Nordeste e Centro-Oeste. Estas regiões concentraram, também, a maior parte aglomerados de municípios com padrão alto-alto na distribuição das taxas. A suavização bayesiana se mostrou eficiente para lidar com os valores extremos, ampliando a confiabilidade das estimativas e melhorando a visualização das mesmas no mapa.

Análise espacial da mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta nos municípios do Brasil / Spatial analysis of motorcycle-related mortalities in Brazilian municipalities

Resumo A análise da distribuição da mortalidade de motociclistas nos municípios brasileiros é fundamental para o entender e tentar minimizar a ocorrência deste crescente fenômeno. O principal objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar a distribuição espacial das taxas de mortalidade de ocupantes de motocicletas nos municípios brasileiros, a partir de estimativas mais robustas e confiáveis. Adicionalmente, pretendeu-se identificar a presença de padrões espaciais na distribuição das mesmas. As taxas brutas foram construídas com base no número de óbitos de motociclistas considerando a média das ocorrências nos anos de 2014, 2015 e 2016. Estas taxas foram padronizadas diretamente e suavizadas utilizando o estimador bayesiano empírico local. A identificação da presença de padrões espaciais foi realizada a partir de um indicador local de autocorrelação espacial (LISA). As taxas de mortalidade mais elevadas foram observadas em municípios da região Nordeste e Centro-Oeste. Estas regiões concentraram, também, a maior parte aglomerados de municípios com padrão alto-alto na distribuição das taxas. A suavização bayesiana se mostrou eficiente para lidar com os valores extremos, ampliando a confiabilidade das estimativas e melhorando a visualização das mesmas no mapa.

Abstract Analysis of the distribution of motorcycle-related mortality rates in Brazilian municipalities is fundamental to understand and seek to minimize the occurrence of this growing phenomenon. The main objective of this work is to analyze the spatial distribution of motorcycle rider mortality rates in Brazil, based on more robust and reliable estimates. An attempt was also made to identify the presence of spatial clusters in the distribution of such mortality rates in given municipalities. The rates were estimated based on the average number of motorcyclist deaths recorded in the years 2014, 2015 and 2016. These rates were then directly standardized and graduated based on the local empirical Bayesian estimator. A Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) indicated the presence of spatial patterns. The Northeast and Mid-West regions concentrated most of the municipalities with high mortality rates as well and most of the clusters of municipalities with a high-high distribution pattern. Graduated Bayesian estimation was effective to deal with the occurrence of extreme values, thereby improving the reliability of the estimates and enhancing the visualization of the rates on the map.

The adult mortality profile by cause of death in 10 Latin American countries (2000-2016).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the adult mortality profile from eight causes of death in 10 Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) from 2000 to 2016. METHODS: The cause of death effect in adult mortality was calculated as the hypothetical gain in the average number of years lived in adulthood (15 to 60 years old), in a cause-deleted life table. Mortality information by cause, sex, and age group came from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: Although the adult mortality levels are very different among the 10 countries, the pattern of mortality by cause of death is very similar. All the countries are in the intermediate stages of the epidemiological transition, with chronic degenerative diseases being predominant. Among males, circulatory system diseases and external causes are the most important causes of death in terms of the average number of years lived in adulthood. Among females, the leading causes are circulatory system diseases and neoplasms. CONCLUSIONS: Some studies have pointed out that Latin America exhibits severe difficulties in moving through some epidemiological transition phases, given the continuing high mortality from chronic diseases and violent deaths. However, between 2000 and 2016, there was a convergence among the 10 analyzed countries around the theoretical limit in the average number of years lived in adulthood. Countries that include Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, and Peru are still further away from this limit, but they have an enormous potential to increase the number of years lived in adulthood in the future.